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2010 Kentucky Derby Newspaper Special SUPER SAVER $9.99 |
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Opinions/Picks on this weekends Arkansas Derby W-P-S ?
The Arkansas Derby is part of NBC Sports’ live coverage of Churchill Downs’ “Road to the Kentucky Derby” beginning at 5 p.m. EST.
The complete field for the Arkansas Derby:
1) Super Saver (Calvin Borel, 9-5)
2) Dublin (Terry Thompson, 7-2)
3) Noble’s Promise (Robby Albarado, 2-1)
4) Northern Giant (Victor Espinoza, 8-1)
5) Uh Oh Bango (Shaun Bridgmohan, 15-1)
6) New Madrid (Abel Castellano, Jr., 20-1)
7) Berberis (Aaron Gryder, 30-1)
Line of David (Jon Court, 15-1)
9) Pulsion (Corey Nakatani, 15-1)
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56318/super-saver-favored-for-arkansas-derby
http://www.drf.com/news/article/111978.html
It ain’t fair for Borail to draw the inside….Super Saver stamps a ticket the the Derby, with a pure chalk trifecta — Noble’s Promise and Dublin for second and third, respectively. This won’t be the place where a bomber scores a ticket to the big dance.
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1969 Belmont Park Aqueduct 9 Horse Races Double-Page Print Ad An original vintage magazine ad print from the year published. Print ads make unique gift items that can be framed as artwork. Shipped flat un-framed in plastic sleeve with backing board…. |
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NORMAN FORD’S FORCE METHOD FOR THE HANDICAPPING OF RACE HORSES – BOOK EIGHT (8) $2036 A WEEK AT AQUEDUCT … |
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(Horse racing) Aqueduct COUNT FLEET STAKES! Who you think will win?
Looks like its going to be a interesting race! Who do you think is going to win this race over at aqueduct? I really like turbo charge who has not last yet but not sure with this distance. Looks like it might be hard to be the favorite but would like some more input on this race. I would not mind at all throwing a large amount on this one!
Afleet Again ,other wise i would go with the inside post. Aqueduct is bias to the inside post positions in my opinion.
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BooBoo A Day at the Races 13 x 19 Glossy Print $68.99 Enrich your special area with the elegance and beauty of fine art photography from Stadium Imaging. This great piece was created from original images by Boo Boo who has been involved in underground collectible photography for a number of years as a well-kept collector’s secret. His creations are in limited numbers and brought to you exclusively on Amazon. Decorate your special rec room, office, g… |
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BooBoo A Day at the Races 13 x 19 Glossy Print with Double Mat $92.99 Enrich your special area with the elegance and beauty of fine art photography from Stadium Imaging. This great piece was created from original images by Boo Boo who has been involved in underground collectible photography for a number of years as a well-kept collector’s secret. His creations are in limited numbers and brought to you exclusively on Amazon. Decorate your special rec room, office, g… |
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Whats the best and most effective way to win at the horse track?
I am a pretty good handicapper, albiet only 26 and only doing it for a few years however, i usually win a little bit or break even when i go to Turfway Park near Cincinnati. I am wondering, to other horsebettors and handicappers, what is the best way to bet? I like the pick 3 and pick 4s but often a longshot pops its head in there and ruins it. Should i stick to exactas and trifectas? Or is the best way to do just win bets??
I have been studying racing results for about two years continuously now for all tracks in the US and the majors in Canada, Thorobred, Quarterhorse and Harness alike, putting the various results thru math formulas, (spread between Morning line favorite and highest odds longshot, field size, length, purse amount, Morning Line Odds Average, number of horses with odds above it both in the ML and at post time, clusters of longshots, clusters of overlays, scratches, post position, consistency of results due to track handle, etc.) and have come to the following conclusions:
#1: you should bet ONE of underlay favorites one thru three to Show in higher purses, but if not betting THE favorite bet the one that underlays the most but only if it underlays below the first favorite; or in some cases bet one with odds in the middle that underlays the most. Those with underlays of at least 100% are more effective. (To measure this change use the probability rather than the odds, so that a change from 4 to 1 to 2 to 1 is not a 100% change, but rather is a change from 1/5 to 1/3, or 67%; a 100% change would be 7 to 1 going down to 3 to 1, or 1/8 going to1/4). Any motion of more than 400% is suspect as it shows too much enthusiasm by the public and is probably misguided.
#2: concentrate on overlay longshots to Win and/or Place in Maiden (NW2, etc.), and lower purse races. Each track will have its own purse range so what’s a “dog” purse at $10,000 in a high dollar track may be the second from the top purse at a smaller one. Overlays are actually ignored horses that in such races actually have a better chance to win than favorites. Case in point – Tuesday February 6, 2007 not ANY post time favorites won any races at Freehold harness (although in the 4th it was a dead heat and in the 9th a three-way tie for favorite).
#3: In the Trifecta, box the four lowest favorites in the Morning Line in stakes or top purse races generally, whereas for Maiden races it’s a few overlay longshots plus the two lowest favorites, usually underlays but a mild overlay is ok as long as it keeps its relative position as the favorite or number two favorite, keeping in mind that frequently in Maiden races the first favorite has been over-rated and does not finish in the money. Here I have been necessarily brief because the full explanation of what I select to box Trifectas would take about 4 pages, including such things as whether the public bets the most money on a horse not only to Win, but also to Place and Show (indicating a non-stalker). And of course Trifectas in a field of 5 (in venues where that’s permitted) are much easier to win than in a field of 12, but then again longshots tend to win more in fields of 8 thru 12 – below and above that field size range favorites tend to win more, so some of this would be your own personal risk tolerance.
I stay away from Exactas because it’s too hard to narrow the choices down, and by being inclusive you usually get back less than the wager – I never wheel because I do not handicap – I don’t care who wins, just that I get the top two – but if I did bet Exactas I’d always box three horses and veto for an odds-on situation as a three-horse box usually shows a slight loss if the favorite is odds-on. I also stay away from pick 6 and daily doubles because I don’t really care who wins just as long as I can make money over time. And the greatest way not to lose is to know when not to bet. I also recommend never betting a horse that is above 50 to 1 (in my system that bet would be made about once every week for the entire group of races available to me online).
#4: To reduce risk it is better to bet online in small amounts multiple times per day, so I do not handicap as I do not have time to read reports. Instead I refer to the excellent groundbreaking book of Ziemba and Hausch called “Beat the Racetrack” that shows that the public is by and large a great determiner of who will win by their betting patterns -so it is safer to bet like a momentum investor would buy stocks, just buying after seeing the stock going up and not caring why.
I have noticed a tendency that if the horse whose odds have dropped the highest percentage is next to the one whose odds have gone up the most, the highly-bet horse will most likely not win but finish lower or out of the money altogether – because the “bad” horse next to it may block its way or even play tag along and then win if the “good” horse tires – unless the favorite or highly-bet horse becomes odds-on (lower than even money) which is the public’s endorsement that it is really good. But I NEVER bet on Odds-on horses in Maiden races because if they’ve never won, why are they so highly touted now? Or why is there such a large spread between the odds-on favorite underlay and the one that overlays to 99 to 1 if NONE of them has ever won? In such non-maiden races, if the odds-on has underlayed a lot, it is safer to bet those with flat odds changes to place; if the odds-on has just gone down slightly, bet horses that have less than an extreme amount of overlay to place. I have determined that by measuring the average odds movement for all the horses in a given race those with this “average” odds movement tend to do better than those that do not move or move too much, and the average amount of movement in the three top finishers tends to mirror the average amount of odds change for all the horses in the race in question. Maiden races tend to have more odds movement, while stakes have less. If a favorite is an extreme underlay and finishes in the money chances are that the others in the money will have flatter odds changes as well as high odds.
I have also recently noticed a bias for races consisting only of Fillies and Mares in that they tend to have more longshot winners in Thorobred races of higher purses, while in “girl” Harness races more favorites tend to win, perhaps because the necessary personality traits in harness racing is a steady push and then a burst; but the data are not really extensive enough to say that it is a fact rather than a statistical aberration. Occasionally I will see longshot Place “streaks” in Quarterhorse races, but this is an illusion – if you categorize by class, length and field size you will be able to see that the apparent “streak” has nothing to do with random chance at all. In Arabian races (usually conducted at quarterhorse venues) longshots tend to win more because the handicapping is more sketchy, plus the animals are high-spirited and unpredictable.
I know my approach is different than most but I see racing primarily as a way to both capture the correctness of the wisdom of the public as occurs in most cases while still being able to determine when they’re wrong and bet against that as well. Just like trading Stocks or Advertising I view racing thru the eyes of human psychology. In fact I have determined that there is a predictable amount of overlaying (or multiples of that) that usually results in a horse being in the money in Maiden races – but only if its odds start from a particular place relative to the field size and to certain mathematical averages – as if the public is consistently mis-guided by the handicapping in Maiden races and acts more or less the same way in the percentage amounts it withdraws its bets (the cause of an overlay) for horses perceived to have no chance, when in fact the favorites are the ones that truly have no chance and have been over-rated. Why this would reproduce the same predictable mathematical ranges of overlaying is due to the millions of people continuing to act consistently when shunning horses that have gotten a bad mark by the handicapper.
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Race To Kill $15.95 For years, Jim Maxwell wanted a wining racehorse. His close friend, a thoroughbred veterinarian named Doc Bellman, had an idea how to create a champion. Their experiment would be costly and in the end, confirm their convictions that winners are born and not made. Motivated by his desire and his theory, Maxwell agrees with Bellman to proceed with the endeavor However, just before the … |
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Hoodie Mens Black Guns don’t kill people. Fantasy Horse Racing kills people Sports This Horse Racing Hoodie has undergone extensive quality control before reaching you. We have over 10 years experience in selling shirts on the internet. The shirts are created by us and are even customizable! Just contact our great customer service for any inquiries…. |
horse racing like the Kentucky derby insn’t that also like animal abuse they cause these horses to run?
as hard as they can so people can gamble and make money and sometimes causing thr poor horse to break legs and then they kill it shouldn’t that be called abuse?didn’t God create man to be better thatn that?should be outlawed I feel
you all miss the whole point here yes horses do run true.but its alittle diffrent when you have someone setting on your back beating you to run harder and faster?if they run of there own free will then they do what they like to if you force them to do it to please you for the sake of your pleasure then you are the one at fault.
There is so much that surrounds horse racing..everyone seems to have a strong opinion one way or another. Everyone who feels badly of the sport really needs to really take notice of all the positive changes made.
Also, I think maybe there’s somethings you may have missed because times have clearly changed. You are only seeing one side of the story. Those of us who do the right thing shouldn’t have to wear the black eye for those who don’t. You can’t put everyone in the same category. Please note the changes, the definition of racing soundness is NOW predicated on equine health, safety, and welfare. The health of horse racing is directly tied to the health of the horses. Every industry stakeholder has an incentive to identify and engage in practices that promote responsible stewardship of the racehorse. The industry has been engaged in some critical self-evaluation, and the changes made are/is being embraced and welcomed, with continuous changes for the better everyday. Many changes in horse racing have occurred in the last 20 years, and should be noted, much of which I could not have foreseen, but little that I regret. The challenges facing this industry are as great as the opportunities. Safety of all racing participants is paramount to the industry which continually works to maximize policies that promote safe outcomes. Successful racing and performance horses do love their jobs and the people connected with them. I have seen this proven over and over again. An example is the Canadian racehorse, Topaz Legacy from Assiniboia Downs. He dumped his rider at the gate and ran the entire race using strategy, tactic and skill to win the race! Thousands of starving and abused horses are rescued every year from private citizens. Neither Chez Chevaux nor SCR have ever had to so do at a racetrack. Racing owners and trainers may easily invest a myriad of hours and more than 5 or 6 figures into sound racing prospects before it becomes evident that the horse is not physically or mentally suited for the demands and skill sets of racing. Those same people have donated their horses to our organizations or given them away to the general equestrian community to be retrained for a second career. We must note that racing is the only sector of equine sports that has routinely donated such expensive horses for retraining while they were sound and marketable.
I know for a fact that the horses that race are treated quite well. I and many love their horses and follow through with their love, care and safety throughout their lives, and get back that love from their horses. I can’t speak for those who don’t care and shame on them. I feel the work horses on farms are the ones that are treated cruel, it’s heart breaking, for many to most are very thin, malnutrition, sick, and have many diseases and the fact they never get the proper care, food, shoes, etc..those are the people that need to be look at. The horse racing industry has made many changes over the years to make the sport one to be proud of. You are, however, entitled to your opinion, but keep in mind cruelty isn’t always the case.
Bottom line if we thought about all the cruelty in the world there would be no happiness, since cruelty lurks everywhere. Also, not everyone in the horse racing industry should be labeled, since most give their hard earn money and time to change rules and conditions to make it safer and safer for these animals who love to run. We all, including horses get hurt at some point, but bounce back if it was meant to be. Everyone and everything should enjoy life to it’s fullest with the least amount of cruelty as possible..
Note: We who love horses don’t argue over cruelty, we do something about it. Our horses are our best friends and they give us as much love as we give them. Horses, as well as, other animals do not take to cruelty well, horses can be rather mean and given their size, it’s an animal not to be reckoned with. We love and care for them everyday in every-way, and wouldn’t have it any other way.
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HAVE YOU HUGGED A HORSE TODAY? Adult USA Flag Racing Flame Hat / Cap $17.99 T-ShirtFrenzy offers over 30,000 designs on tons of products to offer millions of variations. You can search our store for something for everyone on your gift list or shop for yourself (our personal favorite). Please contact us with questions…. |
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HAVE YOU HUGGED A HORSE TODAY? Adult White Racing Checker Hat / Cap $17.99 T-ShirtFrenzy offers over 30,000 designs on tons of products to offer millions of variations. You can search our store for something for everyone on your gift list or shop for yourself (our personal favorite). Please contact us with questions…. |
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What is the most profitable long shot system or horse racing service used today?
It will be a combination of two.
One will be the system (which should be objective only; nothing subjective), the other will be your money management method. Regressive if you are a beginner or a problem gambler.
Keep accurate notes. After at least twenty days of success, you may then graduate to a progressive method of money management.
I keep going away from the one that had been the most successful. However, I keep making bad decisions. Find the one you like and stick with both that method and with that money management method.
The best(?) that I found should not be mentioned on such a public document as this Yahoo Answers. I know that problem gamblers will see it and think they have found the key to the bank.
Not good for addicted gamblers.
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what is the e mail address?
I want to e-mail the studio on the sporting life live horse racing commentary service but I dont know the address
http://www.teamtalk.com/Sporting_Life/Fanzine/Details_Capture
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word association?
Can you make a story of these words and numbers based on your own experience of “fact” ?
169
49
45
22
11
Bill
William
Horse
Billy
white
desert
gospel
good
bad
black
barrel
5′ 2″
4′ 11″
race
racer
Fountain Valley
“Giant Tiger”
Rancho Cucamonga
Santa Ana
Cypress
Golden West
Damasre
Dymsre
Lindow
Arizona
Kathy
Nathaniel
Corona
Angel
Band
Natasha
David
Joseph
Mcbyrd
KMC
fraud
cruel
Holy
cheat
polar
normal
ashamed
disorder
justify
“It was a dark and stormy night, not a fit night out for man nor beast. There was a knock at the door. It was Dad, with a bunch of words and numbers on a sheet of paper. Individually they meant nothing, but together they were a real mystery. Little did I know then that the final outcome of this scenario would be Dad lying lifeless on the floor with the sheet of paper stuffed in his mouth, and the letters YA written in his blood on his forehead. When will these fools realize that when they trifle with the minds of YA members they must pay the consequences!”
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